The chance to draw the black marble is 1 in 300 (p=1/300, q=299/300), you can get the following results (w=white, b=black): Now imagine that you're repeating the example above with the marbles a couple of times, say 3 times of picking up a marble, looking at it and putting it back. The important part is that there's only two possible outcomes like in the example with the marbles above. When you think of break rates you might not want to call your items breaking a success, so just think of p as the chance for an event to happen instead. Another common abbreviation in probability theory is to denote the chance of success with p and the chance to fail (no success) with q, obviously Now, you'll probably want to use your items more than once which leads us to the next section:įirst off: n stands for a natural number, such as 1,2,3,4. Of course, the server doesn't need the visual aid, a 5% chance (5 in 100 equals 1 in 20) is computed like thisĪccording to Entropy (please note that the above link talks of a 5% chance for a 20 instead of 19, however Entropy corrects himself later in the same thread, this is due to the fact that the zero is included, making 0.19 20 numbers), this checks if a randomly generated number equals 2 (the black marble). The Eternal Lands server does exactly the same thing as picking up a marble, looking at it and putting in back when determining if your item breaks during this use/hit. Now, the chance to pick the black marble is obviously 1 in 300, thus the urn models our problem. Take a marble from the urn, look at it and put it back in. Imagine an urn with 299 white marbles and 1 black marble. There underlying problem in determining probabilities and related values is classically an Urn problem: Let's say, the chance for an item to break is 1 in 300 (uses, hits). 3.1.1 Estimate of the necessary attempts. 3.1 Amount of items from a fixed set of ingredients.
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